[SPR] North Korea's Growing Threat

North Korea's Growing Threat

BY ANDREW MOON '27

Just a few days into the new year, on January 5, 2024, North Korea conducted a large-scale artillery provocation near Yeonpyeong Island of South Korea. This occurred six years after the South-North Korea’s Military Agreement, which had agreed upon ceasing all hostile acts between the two Koreas. Due to six missile provocations in January alone, relations between North and South have rapidly deteriorated, raising concerns in the international community about the potential for another major conflict on the Korean Peninsula. All diplomatic efforts should be prioritized to prevent further escalation and to pave the way for lasting peace. The North Korean government must halt all acts of hostilities, including continuous missile provocations and military exercises, which threaten regional security.

In 1950, the Korean War began when North Korea invaded South Korea, resulting in millions of deaths over three years. Despite a ceasefire, no peace treaty has been signed. Therefore, the Korean Peninsula is still under threat.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, North Korea has consistently attempted nuclear development. Despite International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections and diplomatic efforts, North Korea withdrew from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 2003, exacerbating international tensions. North Korea's nuclear weapons program presents additional challenges for international efforts to curb its nuclear proliferation activities. Despite diplomatic engagements such as the Six-Party Talks and the Agreed Framework, North Korea's withdrawal from cooperative arrangements and continued defiance of international demands highlight the ongoing threat it poses to its neighboring countries, which includes South Korea and Japan.
   Despite North Korea’s threat, South Korea has consistently attempted peaceful engagement with the North. Starting with the visit of the South Korean President to Pyongyang at the beginning of the early 2000s, the leaders of the two Koreas met on more than five occasions, promising to cease hostilities and a permanent peace treaty. As a result, it seemed like the threat of war on the Korean Peninsula had diminished.

However, despite the efforts of the South, tensions started to escalate in 2010 when North Korea attacked the South Korean naval ship Cheonan, resulting in the tragic deaths of 49 sailors. Later that same year, North Korea conducted artillery shelling towards Yeonpyeong Island, claiming the lives of two civilians. And even to this day, North Korea continues to threaten regional security by carrying out numerous missile and artillery provocations towards South Korea.
On January 15, 2024, North Korea removed expressions like “peaceful reunification” from its constitution and threatened South Korea by stating, “We do not desire war, but we also have no intention of avoiding it. War will horrifically destroy the entity known as the Republic of Korea and bring about its end.”

Despite the threats and the risks of war, the chances of North Korea actually starting a war appeared to be very low. South Korea ranks the world’s fifth largest military power compared to North Korea’s 36th position globally according to GFP. Moreover, the economic disparity between the two Koreas, with South Korea’s economy being more than 53 times larger, is a gap that North Korea can never hope to bridge.

North Korea understands that in a situation of enormous military disparity with South Korea and a shortage of food to feed its military, it would lose in a war against South Korea. Then why does North Korea provoke South Korea in the first place? The simple answer to that question is that it is due to political reasons. The incidents mentioned above, like the Sinking of Cheonan and the Bombardment of Yeonpyeong, both occurred during the transition of power from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un. These actions were likely aimed at solidifying Kim Jong-un’s succession to power by demonstrating his strength and resolve, as North Korean media highlighted Kim Jong-un’s role in these acts, strengthening his authority and legitimacy to the power.

Additionally, amidst this economic crisis and deteriorating domestic sentiment, Kim Jong-un may be attempting to divert dissatisfaction by directing attention toward external sources, which are the US and South Korea. The political actions of dictators redirecting domestic dissatisfaction towards foreign entities have been historically common, such as the Falklands War and the Uganda-Tanzania War. When Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands, the military dictatorship in power aimed to shift discontent towards Britain to strengthen national unity as the country was facing economic hardship. Similarly, during Ugandan dictator Idi Amin’s invasion of Tanzania, he also had the intention of shifting discontent caused by economic deterioration towards an external target. Eventually, both of them lost in the wars, leading to the downfall of their dictatorships.

Ultimately, even though the chances are low, the threat of war on the Korean Peninsula has not disappeared. The international community must prioritize all diplomatic efforts based on achieving denuclearization of North Korea, contributing to the establishment of lasting peace on the Peninsula. For the North Korean government, they must resume diplomatic cooperation to ensure a peaceful and denuclearized Korean Peninsula. As Korean Cardinal Kim said in the Christmas Mass of 1971, “[t]here can be no love and joy in a place without peace.”

Before the paragraph starting with “Despite,” I cut this paragraph due to the word count (might be necessary to put back in? someone else lmk):

The damage of the potential warfare between the two Koreas would be devastating. South Korea’s capital, Seoul, is located only just about 36 miles from the DMZ (demilitarized zone) and is home to an enormous population of ten million people. The surrounding metropolitan area of Seoul, with a population of 25 million, accounts for half of South Korea's population. Just one hour of North Korean attack in such a location would result in at least 3 million direct casualties, including fifty thousand or more dead Americans. It will cause immense property damage totaling approximately 200 billion dollars. Within the first 24 hours, it is estimated that around 1.5 million deaths, including 200,000 military personnel, would occur. Moreover, due to the Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea, the US would inevitably be obligated to be involved in this war, and as a result, damage to the US would occur. It’s estimated around 1 million soldiers of both South Korea and the US could lose their lives within the first five days. In more than a week, the casualties could surpass 5 million. If even North Korea's ally China gets involved, the extent of the damage could be immeasurable.